OnIslam.net

TRIPOLI – Questions are rising over a Libyan leader who can unite rival tribes after the fall of Muammar Gaddafi, amid worries that the opposition troops could turn on each others when they take control of the capital Tripoli.

"There isn't one rebel leader who is respected by everyone," Kamran Bokhari, Middle East Director at STRATFOR global intelligence firm, told Reuters.

"That's the problem."

Gaddafi ran oil-producing Libya as a cult, without state institutions that would make any transition easier for the opposition, who have plenty of spirit but lack a proper chain of command.

Gaddafi’s centralized state and oil economy deepened many divisions, rewarding or punishing both individuals and tribes primarily on the basis of their loyalty to the government.

As the uprising against Gaddafi broke out, risks are now running high of the country falling into a deadly civil war between tribes.

Now, as Gaddafi is about to fall, speculations are growing about a unifying figure who can lead Libya.

The most prominent opposition leader is Mustafa Abdel Jalil, chairman of the National Transitional Council (NTC), a disparate group of Gaddafi opponents based in the eastern city of Benghazi.

It consists of former government ministers and longstanding opposition members who represent wide-ranging views including Arab nationalism, Islamists, secularists, socialists and businessmen.

A former justice minister, the soft-spoken Abdel Jalil was described as a "fair-minded technocrat" in a US diplomatic cable released by WikiLeaks.

A mild-mannered consensus builder in his late 50s, he was praised by Human Rights Watch for his work on Libya's criminal code reform.

Abdel Jalil resigned as justice minister in February when violence was used against protestors.

But like other former members of Gaddafi's inner circle, he will always be viewed with suspicion by some opposition leaders who want completely new faces with no past links to the regime running the country.

Another candidate is Mahmoud Jibril, the prime minister of the opposition shadow government.

Jibril, a former top development official under Gaddafi, has extensive foreign contacts and has been the rebels' roving envoy.

But his travels have frustrated some colleagues and foreign backers so his experience and contact building will have been wasted if he is not part of any new administration.

Another prominent opposition leader who may play a future leadership role is Ali Tarhouni.

The US-based academic and opposition figure in exile returned to Libya to take charge of economic, financial and oil matters for the rebels.

Civil War

Gaddafi's fall has sparked worries that the opposition troops could turn on each others after controlling Tripoli.

"The first thing my brigade will do is set up checkpoints to disarm everyone, including other rebel groups, because otherwise it will be a bloodbath," Libyan rebel Husam Najjair told Reuters.

"All the rebel groups will want to control Tripoli. Order will be needed."

Tensions between life-long opponents of Gaddafi and his supporters who recently defected to the opposition side may also be a cause of tension.

If hardliners prevail, Libya could make the same mistake that analysts say was made in Iraq after the 2003 US invasion that toppled Saddam Hussein.

His Baath Party supporters and army officers were purged en masse, creating a power vacuum that led to instability for years as everyone from his secular backers to al-Qaeda waged a violent campaign against Iraq's new US-backed rulers.

"You cannot make a rule that anyone who worked for Gaddafi cannot work with us," said Ashour Shamis, a United Kingdom-based Libyan opposition activist.

"It's not practical at all."

Such an approach would undermine efforts to bring back capable people to undertake perhaps the most critical task of all -- revitalizing the oil industry.

Those who want to put aside animosities for the sake of rebuilding the country's energy sector may want to turn to its former top official Shokri Ghanem for help.

The Western-educated Ghanem, who defected, has decades of experience in the oil sector and is a former prime minister credited with liberalizing the Libyan economy and accelerating the opening of the country to global petroleum investment.

Bringing people like Ghanem back will depend to a great extent on whether the opposition will be willing to put aside their differences and take a practical view of Libya's future.

Factionalism

Judging by realities on the ground, it won't be easy.

Take the Western Mountains region, where opposition fighters recently made the most dramatic gains in months.

The fighters showed far more discipline as they swept through towns and villages in the plains and eventually reached Zawiyah, about a 30 minute drive from Tripoli.

Beneath the surface, the opposition groups were torn apart by divisions and factionalism.

Berber and Arab villages look at each other with disdain.

The opposition refers to themselves as the fighters from village x or village y, not the opposition of Libya.

When journalists want to reach frontlines, they are told to get written permission from whichever opposition group is in charge of a specific area.

Najjair, an Irish-Libyan who left behind his life as a building contractor to take up arms against Gaddafi, constantly went on about how his Tripoli Brigade was the best-suited to seize the capital because its members were all from Tripoli.

"We are the most organized. But we get the least help from the other rebel groups," was his constant complaint.

A hint of what could be in store is the still unexplained July 28 killing of the opposition's military commander, Abdel Fattah Younes, a former top Gaddafi security official, after he was taken into custody by his own side for questioning.

The killing has raised fears that the NTC is too weak and fractured to halt a slide into bloodshed as rival factions bid for power.

An increasing number of fighters in the Western Mountains, for instance, are growing long, thick beards, the trademark of Islamists who are likely to reject close ties with the West in a new Libya, while others cry out for foreign investment.

They may also argue that the opposition from the Western Mountains and the city of Misrata should be given the most powerful positions in any new government since they did most of the fighting while the ones in Benghazi dealt with administration.

The bitterness was palpable on the frontlines along the desert plains in the West, even though different opposition groups took part in the advance.

The opposition from Benghazi were portrayed as outsiders who were often late in delivering weapons and other supplies to their counterparts.

Opposition leaders in the leadership structure will have to figure out ways to defuse tensions among their ranks while trying to run Libya.

"Talking over Tripoli will be very complex and trying," said Bokhari.

"Just organizing the feeding of the rebels and getting supplies in will be tough, especially since Gaddafi's people have been busy digging trenches to prepare.